The prices on a prediction market are easy to read once you know the trick: a “Yes” price maps roughly to a probability. Here’s how to interpret what you see on DePredict — and when to take it with a grain of salt.
A Yes price of about $0.62 can be read as roughly a 62% chance. $0.20 ≈ 20%, $0.90 ≈ 90%, and so on. DePredict shows this as the “implied probability” on each market card. It’s an approximation — fees, spreads, and how a market is structured mean it isn’t exact — but it’s the right mental model.
Prices aren’t fixed. They move as traders react to news, data, and each other, and as liquidity comes and goes. A probability you see now can look different an hour later. That’s normal — the number is a live reading, not a verdict.
In markets with little trading volume or thin order books, a single trade can swing the price a lot. Those readings are noisier and less reliable than prices in deep, actively traded markets. When a probability looks surprising, check the volume and liquidity before reading much into it.
A market sitting at ~98% or ~2% can mean two very different things: the outcome may be nearly decided and close to resolution, or the market may simply be thinly traded and stuck at an extreme. Look at the close date, volume, and liquidity to tell which — an extreme price isn’t automatically a confident one.
DePredict displays these probabilities as an informational signal to help you see what markets are pricing. They are not predictions we endorse, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade or bet. Always check the source and verify on the originating platform.